Surprising German and French GDP numbers, both better than expected, gave a boost to the Euro in the early session. The 'recovery is here' crowd, bulling the equities markets, may be ignoring how we got here. The Germans had very large version of the US's cash for clunker program that had to give their economy a one time boost during the previous quarter, and may be a tough act to follow. US retail sales came out later, and were less than expected by the forecasters. This boosted the Euro over the 1.43 where we had suggesting banking profits on the 1.41s bought two days ago.
Those that expect the US consumer to lead the global economic recovery are wrong. Recent increases in retail sales, perhaps, the result of the Washington cash bonus, have been negated by a consumer that fears the expansion of home foreclosures, and must pay for the 50% increase in fuel prices during thepast six months.
Complete Story »